Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds & Player Props to Bet

Feb 29, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) controls the ball as Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) guards in the second quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY SportsThe Miami Heat battle the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday nightThe Wednesday NBA odds favor Jokic’s Nuggets on the roadRead below for Nuggets vs Heat prediction, odds and player props

The Denver Nuggets (45-20) visit the Miami Heat (35-29) on Wednesday, March 13th at the Kaseya Center in Miami. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30pm ET and the game will be televised on ESPN.

The Nuggets are currently tied with the Thunder for the best record in the Western Conference, while the Heat sit in 8th place in the East but are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed. Per the NBA odds, the Nuggets are 4-point favorites with an over/under of 215 points.

Let’s delve into our Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat prediction, as we analyze the odds and determine the best player prop bets to make.

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Odds

In the Nuggets vs Heat odds, Denver is the -150 road favorite, giving them an implied win probability of 60%.

In the NBA Championship odds, the Nuggets are currently the second betting choice to repeat at +420, while the Heat are a +3040 longshot.

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Odds as of March 13, 2024, at ESPN Sportsbook. Claim the ESPN Bet new user promo to bet on Nuggets vs Heat. NC sports bettors can sign up at ESPN Bet North Carolina to wager on the game.

Nuggets Led by Joker

The Nuggets enter this matchup red hot, having won eight of their last 10 games. Most recently, they defeated the Raptors 125-119 behind a monster triple-double from Nikola Jokic – 35 points, 17 rebounds, 12 assists and a season-high six steals.

Jokic is having another MVP-caliber season, ranking 4th in the NBA in rebounds (12.3 per game) and assists (9.2) while scoring 26.2 points per contest. Per the updated NBA MVP odds, Jokic has the best odds to win at -160.

From last night: Nikola Jokic fake ties his shoe in front of the referee and Celtics inbounder to buy the Nuggets extra time to see if they should challenge the call. pic.twitter.com/s3F5WNU8HH

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) March 8, 2024

The Nuggets boast the 4th most efficient offense in the league, scoring 115.0 points per 100 possessions. They are an excellent shooting team, ranking 4th in field goal percentage (49.6%). In addition to Jokic’s brilliance, Jamal Murray provides dynamic scoring, averaging 21.1 points. Michael Porter Jr. (16.6 ppg) spaces the floor as an elite 3-point shooter at 39.7%.

Defensively, the Nuggets allow 110.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 15th. They are a strong rebounding team, though, pulling down 44.3 boards per game (9th). Jokic anchors the defense with his size and instincts.

Heat Missing Herro

The Heat come into this game struggling, having lost three straight to the Mavericks, Thunder and Wizards. Against Washington, they allowed Kyle Kuzma to score 32 points in the Wizards’ first road win since January 29th.

Miami has really missed the scoring punch of Tyler Herro, who remains out with a foot injury. In his absence, Jimmy Butler is leading the team with 21.7 points per game. Bam Adebayo is a nightly double-double threat, averaging 19.9 points and 10.4 rebounds.

The Heat acquired veteran point guard Terry Rozier at the trade deadline from Charlotte, and he’s chipping in 16.8 points and 4.2 assists in 30.1 minutes per game.

Offensively, the Heat rank just 27th in scoring at 110.5 points per game. They shoot 46.5% from the field as a team, which is tied for 21st. Creating efficient offense has been a challenge without Herro’s shot creation.

However, Miami hangs its hat on the defensive end. Since January 31st, the Heat have the 3rd best defensive rating, allowing just 108.5 points per 100 possessions. Their ability to get stops and force turnovers keeps them competitive even when the offense sputters.

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Nuggets vs Heat Player Props

There are no shortage of NBA player props available for the Nuggets vs Heats showdown on Tuesday night. Here are some of the Nuggets vs Heat prop bets we are looking to lock in tonight:

Nikola Jokic over 27.5 points (-110): Jokic has topped this number in seven of his last 10 games and should feast against a Heat frontcourt that struggles on the glass. Back the MVP favorite to fill it up.

Jimmy Butler over 5.5 assists (+105): With Herro out, Butler will be asked to create even more offense for his teammates. He’s had at least six dimes in four straight games. At plus odds, this is a strong value play.

Jamal Murray over 2.5 made threes (-135): Murray is shooting a blistering 41.2% from deep this season. The Heat allow the 4th most made triples per game (13.1). Expect Murray to hit at least a trio of treys.

Bam Adebayo double-double (-175): Adebayo has recorded a double-double in eight of his last 10 contests. Even in a tough matchup with Jokic, he should be able to reach this milestone again. Eat the chalk.

Nuggets vs Heat Prediction

This should be a competitive, hard-fought game, but the Nuggets simply have too much firepower, especially with Herro still sidelined for Miami. Jokic is playing at an otherworldly level right now and has a favorable matchup against a Heat team that ranks just 24th in rebounding. Murray and Porter space the floor for Jokic to operate inside.

The Heat will scrap and claw defensively to stay in it, but unless Butler has a huge scoring night, it’s hard to see them generating enough offense to keep up with Denver. The Nuggets’ depth and shooting are problematic for a short-handed Miami squad.

In the end, look for the Nuggets to pull away in the 4th quarter as Jokic and Murray hit some clutch buckets. The Heat will battle but come up short.

DEN-MIA Pick:

Nuggets -3.5 (-105 at ESPN Bet )

 

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