Texas vs TCU Odds, Lines & Predictions – CFB Week 11

Oct 21, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) warms up prior to the game against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY SportsThe #7 Texas Longhorns are 11.5-point road favorite at the TCU Horned Frogs in their college football game on Saturday, November 11It’s been the underdog winning outright and covering in two of the last three games of this seriesTexas is 1-1 ATS as an away favorite this season

When it comes to games between the Texas Longhorns (8-1, 4-4-1 ATS) and TCU Horned Frogs (4-5, 3-6 ATS), lately the underdog has been coming in to cover. In the last three years of this annual series, favorites are 1-2 straight up and 1-2 against the spread.

Home teams are also 0-3 SU and ATS over that span, so there are trends working in both directions here, considering that the #7 Longhorns are set as 11.5-point away favorites in the Texas vs TCU odds. However, the Longhorns are just 2-3 SU in their last five visits to TCU.

Let’s take a deep dive into the Texas vs TCU odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 11 clash of Big 12 rivals.

Texas vs TCU Odds

In the Texas vs TCU odds, the Longhorns are -455 moneyline favorites, giving them a 81.98% implied win probability. The total is set at 55 points. It’s the fifth straight game between these teams when the over/under was 55+ points. The total is 2-2 in the previous four.

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Odds as of Nov. 10 at DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings Review before betting on Longhorns vs Horned Frogs and other college football Week 11 action this week.

Last year, TCU won 17-10 at Texas, covering as 7.5-point away underdogs. At home against the Longhorns, the Horned Frogs are 3-1 ATS in the last four games.

Kickoff for this game at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday, November 11 is set for 7:30 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ABC.

Longhorns vs Horned Frogs Betting Trends

The college football public betting splits, there’s a lot of love for the Longhorns. In spread splits, Texas is drawing 51% of handle and 76% of bets. TCU is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games against Texas.

Moneyline splits are going massively for Texas. The Longhorns are pulling 99% of both handle and bets. TCU is 11-2 SU over the school’s last 13 home games.

The people are in lockstep on the total as well, placing 95% of handle and bets on the under. Six of the past eight Texas vs TCU games have gone under.

Texas is the eighth betting choice in the National Championship odds at +1500.

Ewers Back In Action For Texas

Longhorns QB1 Quinn Ewers will be back under center for this game. He’s missed the past two games after suffering a shoulder sprain in Week 8 win against Houston.

Texas QB Quinn Ewers will start vs TCU. Sark on Ewers' rehab/game week:

"It didn't feel like there was a lot of rust.. ""I thought he got stronger as the week went on.. I didn't feel like there was a throw he couldn't make."#HookEm @fox7austin 📹: @jsala123 & @ClifOnFOX7 pic.twitter.com/xn7I0l2Ezy

— Dennis de la Pena (@dennisonfox7) November 9, 2023

While the Longhorns went 2-0 with redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy at QB, he was struggling to protect the football. Murphy turned it over four times.

Ewers has passed for 1,915 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Big 12 co-leaders. He’s also run for five TDs.

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Red Zone Red Alert For TCU

One of the nation’s best red zone defenses clashes with one of the country’s worst red zone offense in this game. The Texas defense allows opponents to score on just 65.4% of visits to the red zone. That’s tied with Duke for the second-best percentage in the NCAA.

One more round. TCU vs Texas. Saturday – 6:30 PM CT. pic.twitter.com/jKsIoUxRLA

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) November 10, 2023

Meanwhile, the TCU offense is getting points from visits to the red zone only 69.4% of the time. That’s dead last among Big 12 schools and 124th overall among all 130 FBS teams. Despite ranking third in the Big 12 in total offense (461.2 yards per game), the Horned Frogs are ninth in the conference in scoring offense. TCU is putting 29.2 points per game on the board.

 

Texas vs TCU Prediction

That Texas will win this game and make it four wins in a row for the away team in this series is most certainly going to happen. It would also appear a good bet that the underdog won’t be covering for the third time in four games.

The last three times there’s been a double-digit favorite in this series, the underdog is 2-1 ATS. Texas is 3-3 ATS as the 10+ point chalk this season. However, TCU is 0-4 ATS in the past four games in which the Horned Frogs were double-digit underdogs. And in their only game against a ranked team this season, the Horned Frogs were whipped 41-3 by #25 Kansas State.

Texas vs TCU Pick: Texas Longhorns -11.5 (-110)

 

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