BetIQ Daily: Steelers vs. Vikings and College Basketball Spread Picks

BetIQ Daily: Steelers vs. Vikings and College Basketball Spread Picks

Picks for Thursday include Steelers vs. Vikings, a Roethlisberger prop bet, and the Iowa-Iowa State rivalry game in college basketball.

December 9, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

We are rooting for lots of Roethlisberger-to-Harris handoffs on TNF (Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)

Thursday, December 9 (#14)

BetIQ Daily is back again for another exciting Thursday, starting with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings facing off on Thursday Night Football.

This is post highlights a sample of picks available, which include college basketball, NBA, and all the upcoming bowl game picks. And if you are playing in any college football bowl pools, our College Bowl Pool Picks are back.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

3 Picks for Thursday

1) Pittsburgh +3.0 (at Minnesota) – NFL Spread Pick 

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETPittsburgh was one of our three upset picks in yesterday’s BetIQ Daily.Many books have this at +100 or better odds on Pittsburgh at +3, or you can find +3.5 at -110/-115, so shop for lines if taking this one.Steelers are 5-2 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog.Vikings are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in favorite role.Minnesota’s defensive issues will allow Pittsburgh to be more balanced on offense.Vikings will be without WR Adam Thielen, and RB Dalvin Cook may play, but he’s coming off a shoulder injury.

2) Ben Roethlisberger Under 255.5 Passing Yards – NFL Over/Under Pick 

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETOur passing yards model has Roethlisberger at 236.7 passing yards in a game with 44 expected points, about 19 yards of value.Given the Vikings’ run defense struggles, expect a balanced rush-pass attack as long as the game stays close or Pittsburgh leads.Roethlisberger has passed for more than 255.5 yards in four of the Steelers’ five losses but only one of six wins, so this is correlated with the spread pick.

3) Iowa State +5.5 (vs. Iowa) – NCAAB Spread Pick 

Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ETOne of four playable NCAAB ATS picks for Thursday night.All of our models show value above 50 percent on Iowa State tonight.Our Ensemble Forecast model gives Iowa State 53.3 percent odds to cover.Strength-on-strength: The 8-0 Cyclones have been one of best in the nation at forcing turnovers, while the Hawkeyes are best at avoiding them.

O-HI-O Betting News

Some positive news for those of you in the state that’s Hi in the middle and round on the ends. Looks like I can now justify a trip to see extended family in 2022.

BREAKING: Ohio sports betting bill passes House 72-12, not long after Senate passes identical bill. Legislation now goes to Gov. Mike DeWine, who is expected to sign shortly. Bill includes online; retail betting at casinos, stadiums & bars. Betting set to begin sometime in 2022.

— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) December 8, 2021

On Buffalo’ Power Rating

The Buffalo Bills are our second-highest-rated team in our predictive power rating, which doesn’t sit too well with some people. It even spawned a little Twitter discussion on Tuesday.

But we aren’t on an island with Buffalo. The betting markets also have the Bills at No. 2.

Some things to keep in mind:

Close-game performance: The Bills are 0-4 in games decided by one score, and they have trailed entering the fourth quarter in only two of 12 games.Point differential: Buffalo is at +140, second-best in the NFL. Of the 78 teams with a +120 or better point differential after 12 games since 1978, Buffalo is one of only two (1987 Cleveland) to be 7-5.Defensive Pass Efficiency: Buffalo is first in net passing yards per attempt, passing touchdowns allowed, and passing yards allowed.

Those things are either non-predictive (close games) or more predictive (point differential and passing efficiency on offense/defense), but most people tend to value “but they lost to Jacksonville” more.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

NFL point spread picks: 39-28-1 (58%, +7.5 units)College football over/under picks: 173-142-3 (55%, +15.3 units)NBA spread picks: 13-8 (62%, +3.8 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

Got Feedback?

Thanks for reading this edition of BetIQ Daily!

We plan to try out some different things as we refine this column, and we’d love to hear your suggestions on what to include.

Send us your feedback or ideas at [email protected].

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