Louisville vs Florida State Prediction, Odds & Picks – ACC Championship 2023

Florida Gators defensive lineman Desmond Watson (21) sacks and throw Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tate Rodemaker (18) to the ground at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 25, 2023 during the second half. Florida State won 24-15. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]The #4 Florida State Seminoles are 1-point favorites over the #15 Louisville Cardinals in the ACC championship game on Saturday, December 2Florida State has won 11 ACC games in a row straight upLouisville is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Seminoles

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 7-5 ATS) have a lot on their plate at the moment, but first and foremost must be dealing with the Louisville Cardinals (10-2, 6-5-1 ATS) in the ACC championship game.

If the Seminoles don’t get the job done against the Cardinals, then the rest of their items suddenly don’t matter.

The unbeaten Seminoles are seeking to grab one of the four coveted spots in the CFP. An impressive win over the Cardinals would go a long way toward making that happen. Of course, that development would also keep Florida State in the national championship reckoning.

Oddsmakers are going with the Seminoles as the chalk over the Cardinals, but they aren’t overwhelming favorites. They’re the 1-point favorites in the Florida State vs Louisville odds.

Let’s take a deep dive into the Louisville vs FSU odds and offer you our prediction for this ACC title game.

Louisville vs Florida State Odds

In the Louisville vs Florida State odds, the Seminoles are -118 moneyline favorites, giving them an 54.13% implied win probability. The total is set at 46.5 points. That’s the lowest total in a game between these two schools since the total was 46 points since 2015.

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Odds as of Dec. 1 at DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings Review before betting on Cardinals vs Seminoles and other college football action this week.

Louisville is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Florida State. The away team has covered in four of the past five Seminoles vs Gators matchups.

Kickoff for this game at Bank of America Stadium on Saturday, December 1 is set for 8:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ABC.

Cardinals vs Seminoles Betting Trends

The college football public betting splits are showing much love for Florida State in the moneyline splits, but indecision among the people when it comes to the spread. There’s 90% of handle and 87% of bets going with Florida State at -125 in the moneyline. The Seminoles are 18-0 SU in their last 18 games.

Florida State is also getting 66% of spread bets. However, the spread handle is 81% with Louisville. Florida State is 1-3 ATS over the past four games, while the Cardinals are 2-2 ATS in the last four.

There’s also uncertainty when it comes to the total of 46.5 points. While bettors are liking the over at 71%, there’s a 50-50 split among the handle. Seven of the last nine Louisville vs Florida State games have gone over.

Florida State is the seventh betting choice in the national championship odds at +2800. The Seminoles are given a betting line of -140 to qualify for the playoffs.

Another Florida State QB Injured

Last week’s 24-15 win by the Seminoles over arch-rival Florida was the first start at QB for Tate Rodemaker since Florida State QB1 Jordan Travis was suffering a season-ending leg injury. Might it also be his last?

ESPN reports QB Tate Rodemaker is a game-time decision Saturday in the ACC Championship against Louisville.

FSU spokesperson tells @247Sports: "We are working through the process with Tate and we’ll see what that means for tomorrow." pic.twitter.com/upvtQttbHZ

— Brandon Marcello (@bmarcello) December 1, 2023

Rodemaker briefly left that game following a helmet-on-helmet collision with Florida defensive end Princely Umanmielen. Word is circulating that Rodemaker might be dealing with a concussion. The Seminoles revealed Friday that Rodemaker will be a game-time decision.

Rodemaker wasn’t exactly spectacular against the Gators. He only threw for 134 yards. If it turns out he can’t go, freshman Brock Glenn would be next man up under center for the Seminoles. This news is causing line movement. Florida State was the 2-point chalk earlier Friday.

2023 College Football Conference Championship Odds TrackerRead More

Stark Similarities Between ACC Finalists

Looking into the numbers, there are far more similarities than differences in this matchup between the Seminoles and Cardinals. Both teams have played seven games against bowl-eligible schools, an NCAA high.

Louisville is going to beat Florida State tomorrow and win the ACC Championship. pic.twitter.com/xFqwpX0JUe

— Nick Coffey (@TheCardConnect) December 1, 2023

Louisville is the #26 offensive in country, averaging 438.6 yards per game. Florida State is the nation’s #30 offense, gaining 432.8 YPG. Defensively, the Cardinals rank #19 in the NCAA (314.7 YPG allowed). Right behind them at #20 are the Seminoles (315.5 YPG allowed).

Louisville vs Florida State Prediction

With the uncertainty surrounding Rodemaker, suddenly an upset seems very plausible in the ACC championship. Florida State fell behind Florida 12-0 before rallying. That won’t be good strategy against Louisville. Not only do the Cardinals start fast (71-21 first-quarter edge), they finish strongly (95-50 fourth quarter advantage).

Coming off a loss to Kentucky, Cardinals coach Jeff Brohm is 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS as a betting underdog following a defeat.

Louisville vs FSU Pick: Louisville Cardinals +1 (-112)

 

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