New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Predictions & Picks

Apr 16, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto (22) throws his bat after flying out during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY SportsThe Toronto Blue Jays look for a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees on Wednesday afternoonThe Pinstripes turn to former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman in the series finale, while Toronto goes with struggling ace Kevin GausmanSee the Yankees vs Blue Jays odds, picks, and predictions for April 17

A riveting series finale is on tap in Toronto on Wednesday afternoon as the New York Yankees (12-6, 8-4 away) hope to avoid a sweep at the hands of AL East rivals the Toronto Blue Jays (10-8, 6-2 home). The matchup on the mound is an intriguing one with the Yankees giving the ball to Marcus Stroman, who spent the first five-plus years of his career as a Blue Jay, and Toronto going with ace Kevin Gausman, whose ERA is in double-ps.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds

Wednesday’s Yankees vs Blue Jays odds are roughly a pick’em with Toronto a slight -115 favorite and the Yankees coming back at -105 in the MLB odds. The over/under is sitting at 8.5.

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Toronto took game one of the series 3-1 on Monday, getting 6.1 innings of one-run ball from Chris Bassitt. They road another strong start, this time from Yusei Kikuchi (6.0 IP, 4H, 1 ER, 9K, 1BB), to a 5-4 victory on Tuesday. The Yankees had not lost back-to-back games this season before the Toronto series but, after also dropping the series finale to the Guardians on Sunday, have now dropped three straight.  New York’s lead atop the AL East is already down to just half a game over Baltimore and every team in the division is .500 or better and within three games of each other.

Blue Jays’ Gausman Off to Brutal Start

Kevin Gausman was limited to just three innings in spring training this season and he has looked like a shadow of himself in his two most-recent regular-season starts. The Jays ace has lasted a total of five innings in those two starts, allowing 14 hits and 12 runs with just four strikeouts and two walks.

Concerningly for Toronto fans, the worst of the bunch came against the Yankees in New York on April 6 (six runs on four hits and two walks in just 1.1 innings). His Cy Young odds have already faded from +840 (second-favorite on March 28) to +1450 (seventh-favorite).

The ironic part of it all is that Gausman’s first regular-season start was rock solid. He allowed just one run on two hits over 4.1 innings with six strikeouts in a 9-2 win over Tampa Bay. He was only relieved because he was on a pitch count.  But his fastball velocity is undeniably down this season (93.8 MPH vs 94.6 minimum over the four previous seasons)

Overall, Gausman has solid if not spectacular numbers against the current Yankee lineup, which is slashing .251/.333/.421 in 171 total at-bats with a .754 OPS. Aaron Judge has hit him hardest, sporting a .313 average and 1.213 OPS in 32 at-bats with four home runs and eight RBI.

Marcus Stroman vs Kevin Gausman

StromanVSGausman

Marcus Stroman didn’t allow an earned run in his first two starts of the season (though he did give up three unearned in his first start against Houston) but he was tagged by the light-hitting Marlins last time out. Miami piled up four runs on four hits and four walks in 5.0 innings during a 5-2 win over New York on April 10.

Stroman’s numbers against the lineup he’ll be facing on Wednesday are eerily similar to Gausman’s against the New York batters. Toronto hitters have 89 cumulative at-bats against Stroman with a .247/.295/.461 slash-line and a .755 OPS. But note that 35 of those at-bats belong to longtime Tampa Bay Ray Kevin Kiermaier (.257 BA, 2 HR, 2 doubles) who regularly saw Stroman when he was still with Toronto. Daulton Varsho is the only only other Blue Jay with a home run off Stroman, his lone hit in five at-bats. Justin Turner is 4-for-12 with two doubles.

Prized offseason acquisition Juan Soto has anchored the Yankee lineup early in the season while teammate Aaron Judge struggles. Hitting .324 with a .947 OPS and 15 RBI, Soto has emerged as the early favorite in the AL MVP odds, ahead of KC’s Bobby Witt Jr.

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Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction

It’s hard to be too bullish or bearish on Gausman in this small a sample size. He was limited in spring training due to “shoulder fatigue” but reports said there was no structural damage, and it’s hard to imagine the Jays would be trotting him out there if they had any serious concerns about his shoulder. The 33-year-old posted an excellent 3.16 ERA last season and 1.18 WHIP.

He made four starts against the Yankees in 2023 and was, overall, sublime. He held the Yankees to just three runs 28 innings and went at least six scoreless in three of those four starts (including one in April and two in September). Gausman was also plenty effective in his first start against the Rays and I expect him to get back to that point in the coming weeks.

Stroman has been a bit lucky to post a 2.12 ERA so far. His xERA and xFIP are both in the mid threes and his strikeout percentage of 24.6% is about four percent higher than any single season in his decade-long career.

Both pitchers will regress/progress closer to their means, and that leaves the value on the Jays in this pick’em matchup.

NYY vs TOR pick: Blue Jays moneyline (-115)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 10-4 (+2.81 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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