Packers vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb beats Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage for a touchdown. MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINELDallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb beats Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage for a touchdown.The Dallas Cowboys host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon as seven-point favoritesDak Prescott has thrown for at least 261 yards in all eight home games this seasonGet our three-leg, +120 Packers vs Cowboys same-game parlay for the Wild-Card Round

Right in the middle of a packed Wild-Card Weekend, the Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 8-0 home, ATS) host the Green Bay Packers (9-8, 4-5 away, ATS) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 pm ET on Sunday, Jan. 14 and the NFC East-winning Cowboys are listed as heavy seven-point favorites, the second-biggest spread of the weekend.

This Packers vs Cowboys same-game parlay isn’t trying to reinvent the wheel. The Cowboys have been immaculate at home all season, and my SGP  groups three very attainable targets for Dallas and two of its key offensive players.

Packers vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay

The first leg is an alternate spread (Dallas -2.5) while the second and third are performance targets for QB Dak Prescott and WR Brandin Cooks.

Odds as of Jan. 13 on the FanDuel app. If you’re already betting at FanDuel, claim SBD’s ESPN Bet new user promo. 

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After nailing a +211 Buffalo/Miami SGP in Week 18, I finished the regular season up +6.24 units on NFL same-game parlays.

Packers vs Cowboys SGP Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys -2.5

The first leg of this same-game parlay is an alt-spread wager on Dallas to win by at least a field goal. Not only are the Cowboys a perfect 8-0 at AT&T Stadium this season, they have a 21.5 average margin of victory. It’s a touch concerning that their last home game was a narrow one-point win over the Detroit Lions (20-19) which would have been a loss if not for contentious officiating on a last-minute two-point attempt by the Lions.

But Detroit (seventh in DVOA; +66 point differential) is a significantly better team than Green Bay (13th in DVOA; +33 point differential). Only one other team, Seattle, was able to keep the deficit to single digits at Dallas, losing a 41-35 shootout.

Green Bay vs Dallas Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Prescott Over 224.5 Passing Yards

Prescott has gone over 224.5 pass yards in 12 of 17 games this season, including all eight games at home, where he averaged nearly 280 passing yards per game. The Packers’ defense finished the season 27th in DVOA and graded out 21st per Pro Football Focus, with the 13th-best pass rush and 19th-best coverage unit.

The most-realistic scenario in which Prescott doesn’t hit the over in this modest Packers vs Cowboys player prop is one where the Cowboys open up a big lead an abandon the pass. That’s what happened in Week 1 when Dallas routed the Giants 40-0 and Prescott had just 143 passing yards on 24 attempts. In the postseason, though, the lead is going to have to be massive for Mike McCarthy to take his foot off the gas.

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Packers vs Cowboys Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Brandin Cooks Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

Green Bay is banged up in the secondary with starting left cornerback Jaire Alexander listed as questionable due to an ankle injury. CeeDee Lamb (1,749 yards) is the undisputed number-one for the Cowboys, but Brandin Cooks is likely to see some soft coverage as a result.

Brandin Cooks this season:

-16 games played-54 receptions-657 receiving yards-8 TDs-12.2 yards/reception

He is one of the most underrated receivers in the league and has been a huge part of the Cowboys' offensive success this season. pic.twitter.com/1FKBcWETFz

— 𝘾𝙤𝙬𝙗𝙤𝙮𝙨 𝘿𝙪𝙗𝙨 (@CowboysDubs) January 10, 2024

Cooks averaged 41.1 receiving yards per game this year (657 in 16 games) and was targeted just over five times per game. He’s gone over 24.5 yards in seven of the past nine games. With Green Bay 19th in coverage (per PFF) during the regular season, while largely healthy, Cooks (and the rest of the Dallas receiving corps) are primed for a big day, which is one of the main reasons my colleague likes over 50.5 in his Packers vs Cowboys prediction.

 

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