What teams will get through to the 2023 MLB ALCS? Our experts give their predictions

With four powerhouse teams in the ALDS, it could go several ways. We look at who we think will make it to the next round and why.

Jeffrey MayJeff_DiarioASUpdate: Oct 8th, 2023 11:19 EDT

GREG FIUMEAFP

The American League has been headed this way for most of the 2023 season. Despite what the national press has had to say about the collapse of the Yankees and Red Sox this season, or the way that both the Rays and Blue Jays fizzled out in the Wild Card series, it is little surprise that these four teams are in the ALDS.

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros have led the AL West all season, and the Baltimore Orioles took over the reins of the AL East back in June, never relinquishing them thereafter. The one team that could be argued is a little eyebrow raising is the Minnesota Twins, but then only because of just how much the Blue Jays were expected to beat them.

Now the dice have been thrown, the matchups made, so let’s look at who I think will make it past this stage and fight it out in the ALCS for the opportunity to represent the league in the World Series.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles

Coming to the ALDS via the Wild Card series can do one of two things: it can wear you out or it can give you momentum. The Rangers fall into the latter category. Their dismantling of the Tampa Bay Rays in straight sets in St Petersburg showcased a team that is just warming into the post season.

Baltimore are a great team and have made light work of most of their opponents this season, with 101 wins they topped the AL this season overall. But their rest period might work against them in this matchup, with Texas coming into this ALDS series on a hot streak.

Unfazed by the environment. #GoAndTakeIt pic.twitter.com/2G04OtpeMQ

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) October 7, 2023

I like Texas in this one. A lot.

When they are all on and injury free, which they are right now, they have the most potent offense in baseball. Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Marcus Semien are huge power hitters who score a ton, but when you add to the mix the work done at the plate by Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, you have a lineup that can put up big numbers fast.

And then there is the kid, Evan Carter, who has come out of nowhere over the last few weeks and stamped his name on this Rangers team in giant capital letters. I like this offense a lot.

The Rangers’ achilles heel this season has been their pitching. With the early loss of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi took over as a lights-out, long work starter, going deep into games and stymieing opposition hitters. When he went on the IL in late July, the rotation suffered, as did the bullpen, mainly through being overworked. When he came back, he simply wasn’t the same dominant force.

LET'S HEAR IT FOR HEIM! #GoAndTakeIt pic.twitter.com/ddzIw0EpcA

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) October 7, 2023

But a couple things have happened. One is that Dane Dunning has stepped up his game and become a solid rock in that rotation. And the other is that it is now clear that Bruce Bochy, wily fox that he is, had Eovaldi on a short leash through September, saving him for now. In his last two outings, Eovaldi has been the Eovaldi of old, shutting down lineups and going into six and seven innings.

Now that Dunning has won the first game of the series against the Orioles, the Rangers have Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi up next. And while a sweep of the Orioles may be too outlandish to think about, it is not by any stretch of the imagination an impossibility. I think that the series will go to four, but the Rangers will be too much for Baltimore to handle.

Joe’s pick for the Rangers – Orioles series

The Rangers are solid, they look great and they could go all the way, but… This is another Cindrella story and the Orioles have just been too good too long to throw it all away here. The Rangers got lucky, yep, that’s right, they lucked out on Saturday. Aroldis Chapman was this close to throwing away the game. The Orioles will tie it up tonight and go on to win the best-of-5-series. Sorry Jeff, but I have to go with O’s here. Their .838 OPS with runners in scoring position this season is something that will bite the Rangers’ bullpen in the butt.

The American League Division Series begins today with the Orioles hosting the Rangers. The two teams split their meetings during the regular season.The Orioles are going for their first ALCS appearance since 2014, while the Rangers are seeking their first since 2011. pic.twitter.com/qKuUygOPRy

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 7, 2023

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros

Nobody, and I do mean nobody, gave Minnesota a chance in hell to be here. The hot story was Toronto and how they were coming on strong, making a late run, and were going to steamroll the Twins. In the end, the opposite happened.

Everybody who has paid attention to baseball for the last five or six years has got to recognize, however begrudgingly, the ownership of the Houston Astros on the World Series. You may hope, and even pray, for someone to beat them but a lot of that is just wishful thinking.

FIRST PITCH SWINGING. pic.twitter.com/1hfbBALr1Q

— Houston Astros (@astros) October 7, 2023

And so it is here. I’m taking the Astros on this one.

Minnesota are on a roll and even in their loss to Houston in game one, they made it interesting, scoring four runs late in the game. Houston is a meat grinder, a steam roller, that simply mashes opposition into dust. They have been unworried in recent years by going to Yankee Stadium or playing in Atlanta. They simply do what they do, at all costs.

And what they do is score runs seemingly at will. Yordan Álvarez is the big bomb hitter, but when you have Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Chas McCormick behind you, plus Jose Altuve leading off? That is a recipe for scoring runs and Houston makes the most of it.

Lefty to face Yordan? When will they learn. pic.twitter.com/8tENnEC4Gg

— Houston Astros (@astros) October 7, 2023

The Astros are as close to a complete organization as any you will find in baseball. They hit, their bullpen is healthy and deep, and they find a way to grind out wins no matter what the situation. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have done a lot of the heavy lifting this season, but with arms like Bryan Abreu, Hector Neris, and Phil Maton in relief, there is a second line to their defense.

The Twins will take a game or two, forcing the Astros to do it in four or five, but ultimately the road to the World Series, as it always seems to do, goes through Houston.

Joe’s prediction on the Astros – Twins series